Forecasting Baden?Württemberg's GDP growth: MIDAS regressions versus dynamic mixed?frequency factor models
نویسندگان
چکیده
Germany's economic composition is heterogenous across regions, which makes regional projections based on German gross domestic product (GDP) growth unreliable. In this paper, we develop forecasting models for Baden-Württemberg's growth, a economy that dominated by small- and medium-sized enterprises with strong focus foreign trade. For purpose, evaluate the backcasting nowcasting performance of mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions forecast combinations against an approximate dynamic mixed-frequency factor model. Considering wide range regional, national, global predictors, find our high-dimensional outperform benchmark time series models. Surprisingly, also combined forecasts simple single-predictor MIDAS are able to from more sophisticated
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Forecasting
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0277-6693', '1099-131X']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2743